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December 2011 Stockton Area Market Update

 

(Links are available at the bottom of this page to neighborhood specific market reports for Brookside, Lincoln Village, Lincoln Village West, Morada, Morada West, Quail Lakes, Spanos East and Spanos West.)

 

Click here to search the MLS like a realtor or the following links to view the homes available in the following neighborhoods!

 

 
 

Stockton Market Trend:

The foreclosure delay we have experienced resulted in a temporary reduction in housing inventory, although home sale prices continue to decline. Shadow inventories that are estimated at in excess of one and a half million units nationwide indicate a substantial increase in inventory for sale. Traditional laws of supply and demand dictate this eventual increase in inventory will place downward pressure on prices.

Some institutions, previously perceived as 'too large to fail' have faced heavy fines and are now being directly confronted by the Government. Bank of America had to pay $1.3 billion in penalties to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the first nine months of 2011 because of foreclosure delays.

But when? We should see a substantial increase in inventories within the next six months, and a continued decrease in housing prices for the next 12 months.

Stockton Stats for December 2011

  • There were 1,537 homes for sale in Stockton at the end of the month. This total includes 407 pending units, leaving a balance of 1,130 units (2.9 months' inventory) available for sale.

  • 4,645 homes were sold in Stockton during the 12 month period, an average of 387 homes per month. This compares to 4,830 homes, or a 403 unit average per month one year ago, a 4% drop.

  • SALES ARE SLOWING...

  • There is a 4 month inventory on the market (see the "Months Sales In Inventory" chart above). Exclusive of pending sales (more transactions fall out of escrow in this market than in a normal market) there is a 2.9 month adjusted inventory.

  • There should be new homes placed on the market over the next few months as inventories appear out of "The Shadows".

  • Normal pricing rules related to supply and demand do not work in this lender controlled market. Despite the scarcity of inventory, prices continue to decline. Consider:

    • 1,159 units of the total 1,537 unit inventory was controlled by lenders (75%);

    • 275 units of the total 410 units sold this month were controlled by lenders (67%).

  • 410 units were sold this month this year, same as this month last year.

  • The average sales price per square foot is $80 - less than the cost to build a home.

  • The average home sales price in December 2011 was $135,000.

Click on any of the following links to view neighborhood specific market reports.